{"F": {"ts_code": "920249.BJ", "name": "利尔达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信终端及配件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230217", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.39, "pe_ttm": 50.0243, "pb": 4.8695, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 395910.57, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.2, 22.9, 17.8, 13.3, 14.6, 16.3], "rev_series": [13.8, 22.1, 25.9, 24.3, 19.6, 24.3], "np_series": [0.5, 1.8, 1.1, -0.1, -1.1, 0.4], "roe_series": [9.2, 30.9, 15.0, -1.7, -14.7, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.4, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": -1.1, "gm_median": 16.3, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.8, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.87, "capex_dep": 1.29, "interest_debt": 5.0, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 65.4, "debt_mv": 12.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -2.1, "np_cagr3": -26.6, "rev_yoy": 35.0, "np_yoy": 345.6, "np_vol": 345.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["集成电路销售", 36.0], ["IC增值分销", 36.0], ["物联网系统解决方案", 13.0], ["物联网模块及系统解决方案", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 47.1, "ret_prev2_year": 21.0, "ret_ytd": -28.0, "ret_pivot": 147.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 43, "hard": 11, "bondness": 30}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 50 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 65%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 -1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 1.29 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 50.0 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "利尔达:PE 比行业中位低 34.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点。"]}}