{"F": {"ts_code": "920247.BJ", "name": "华密新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.85, "pe_ttm": 60.0753, "pb": 5.8239, "dv_ttm": 0.6285, "total_mv": 280743.7035, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.7, 29.7, 28.0, 31.1, 31.1, 31.8], "rev_series": [3.0, 3.6, 3.4, 4.0, 4.1, 4.4], "np_series": [0.5, 0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [34.7, 25.0, 14.1, 12.5, 8.7, 9.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.7, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 31.1, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": 12.2, "roe_median": 12.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.8, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 5.82, "capex_dep": 4.69, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 27.3, "debt_mv": 4.2, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.3, "np_cagr3": 0.6, "rev_yoy": 16.3, "np_yoy": 19.5, "np_vol": 16.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 55.7, "fwd_pe2": 46.4, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 2.79, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["橡塑材料", 42.0], ["材料", 42.0], ["橡塑制品", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 71.4, "ret_prev2_year": -1.1, "ret_ytd": -34.3, "ret_pivot": 103.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 53, "hard": 48, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 60.1 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 31.1%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.1%),硬资产占比 30%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 4.69 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 60.1 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "华密新材:PE 比行业中位高 29.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.3个百分点。"]}}