{"F": {"ts_code": "920239.BJ", "name": "长虹能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20210209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.9, "pe_ttm": 16.6597, "pb": 3.5963, "dv_ttm": 1.8265, "total_mv": 398742.5068, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.2, 22.9, 15.5, 10.3, 16.6, 16.5], "rev_series": [19.5, 30.7, 32.1, 28.0, 36.7, 44.8], "np_series": [1.6, 2.5, 1.1, -2.7, 2.0, 2.5], "roe_series": [27.9, 31.8, 11.3, -31.5, 24.4, 25.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 49.8, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 6.9, "fcf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_yield": 11.7, "ocf_yield": 17.3, "gm_median": 16.5, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -9.7, "npm_median": 6.2, "roe_median": 24.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.0, "fix_assets": 18.5, "goodwill_ratio": 1.8, "pb_calc": 3.6, "capex_dep": 0.9, "interest_debt": 14.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 74.6, "debt_mv": 35.9, "payout": 31.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 11.8, "np_cagr3": 30.5, "rev_yoy": 24.8, "np_yoy": -9.1, "np_vol": 172.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 6.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 14.6, "fwd_pe2": 11.3, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 0.5, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["高倍率锂电", 24.0], ["锂电/太阳能等", 24.0], ["碱电", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 61.0, "ret_prev2_year": 55.6, "ret_ytd": -31.6, "ret_pivot": 91.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 39, "hard": 54, "bondness": 37}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.5%,稳定度 76%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.7%(经营现金流/市值 17.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.5%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 0.90 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.7 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "长虹能源:PE 比行业中位低 19.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点。"]}}