{"F": {"ts_code": "920227.BJ", "name": "美登科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 51.69, "pe_ttm": 45.0608, "pb": 5.0339, "dv_ttm": 1.9346, "total_mv": 201288.6135, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [71.8, 69.3, 69.4, 70.4, 66.8, 66.8], "rev_series": [1.0, 1.2, 1.1, 1.1, 1.5, 1.6], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [28.1, 30.1, 14.2, 10.4, 10.2, 10.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.6, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 2.6, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 69.3, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 37.0, "roe_median": 10.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.5, "fix_assets": 0.3, "goodwill_ratio": 17.2, "pb_calc": 5.03, "capex_dep": 0.17, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 5.5, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 91.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 11.1, "np_cagr3": 1.1, "rev_yoy": 2.4, "np_yoy": 7.0, "np_vol": 17.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 40.2, "fwd_pe2": 35.3, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 2.87, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["电商SaaS软件", 29.0], ["SaaS服务", 29.0], ["电商客服外包", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.4, "ret_prev2_year": 67.6, "ret_ytd": -12.4, "ret_pivot": 185.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 75, "hard": 12, "bondness": 53}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 45.1 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 69.3%、固定资产占比 8%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 69.3%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 69.3%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.17 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.1 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "美登科技:PE 比行业中位低 38.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 41.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点。"]}}