{"F": {"ts_code": "920225.BJ", "name": "利通科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "橡胶", "sw3": "其他橡胶制品", "ind": "橡胶", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20210225", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.6, "pe_ttm": 28.8891, "pb": 2.9179, "dv_ttm": 0.5682, "total_mv": 223377.2534, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.0, 25.8, 38.0, 47.8, 43.3, 41.0], "rev_series": [2.9, 3.3, 3.7, 4.9, 4.8, 4.6], "np_series": [0.4, 0.3, 0.8, 1.3, 1.1, 0.8], "roe_series": [15.9, 8.9, 19.0, 25.0, 17.0, 11.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 41.0, "gm_std": 7.4, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 4.0, "npm_median": 22.1, "roe_median": 17.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.7, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.92, "capex_dep": 1.0, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 22.9, "debt_mv": 1.1, "payout": 15.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.2, "np_cagr3": 0.0, "rev_yoy": 11.4, "np_yoy": -11.2, "np_vol": 78.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 22.6, "fwd_pe2": 19.0, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 1.19, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["液压管总成及配套管件", 28.0], ["工业管总成及配套管件", 12.0], ["超高压设备", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 217.2, "ret_prev2_year": -41.6, "ret_ytd": -44.9, "ret_pivot": 150.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 60, "hard": 48, "bondness": 22}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.9 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 41.0%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 30%,毛利率近 5 年中位 41.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.0%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 1.00 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.9 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「橡胶」23 家中位:PE 29.4 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 23.7% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 47%。", "利通科技:PE 比行业中位低 0.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点。"]}}