{"F": {"ts_code": "920223.BJ", "name": "荣亿精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220609", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.1, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 11.6199, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 268957.35, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.7, 23.9, 18.4, 14.4, 9.4, 13.1], "rev_series": [1.7, 2.6, 2.5, 2.5, 2.9, 4.3], "np_series": [0.2, 0.2, 0.1, -0.3, -0.3, -0.2], "roe_series": [15.6, 13.1, 3.2, -10.1, -11.1, -7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -3.7, "ocf_yield": -2.8, "gm_median": 14.4, "gm_std": 5.0, "gm_stab": 0.66, "gm_chg_2022": -15.3, "npm_median": -4.5, "roe_median": -7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.9, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 11.62, "capex_dep": 0.95, "interest_debt": 2.5, "debt_ebitda": 16.8, "debt_ratio": 67.3, "debt_mv": 9.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 21.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 30.6, "np_yoy": -114.9, "np_vol": 192.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 68.4, "fwd_pe2": 30.5, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 124.0, "peg": 0.55, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["3C", 22.0], ["汽车类", 13.0], ["汽车", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 133.2, "ret_prev2_year": 68.7, "ret_ytd": -23.6, "ret_pivot": 365.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 34, "hard": 53, "bondness": 15}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 16.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.4%,稳定度 66%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.7%(经营现金流/市值 -2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.4%,稳定度 66%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 0.95 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "荣亿精密:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.1个百分点。"]}}