{"F": {"ts_code": "920221.BJ", "name": "易实精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.26, "pe_ttm": 29.5836, "pb": 3.6166, "dv_ttm": 0.7541, "total_mv": 157329.9, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.0, 32.9, 29.7, 31.7, 30.4, 30.5], "rev_series": [0.9, 1.5, 2.3, 2.8, 3.2, 3.5], "np_series": [0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [20.2, 26.6, 23.5, 17.9, 14.2, 14.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.6, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 5.1, "gm_median": 30.5, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -7.3, "npm_median": 17.2, "roe_median": 17.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.1, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.62, "capex_dep": 2.06, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 21.7, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 33.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 14.6, "np_cagr3": 15.3, "rev_yoy": 6.2, "np_yoy": -14.6, "np_vol": 16.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 25.7, "fwd_pe2": 22.3, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.61, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["新能源汽车零部件", 23.0], ["新能源汽车专用零部件智能制造装备", 23.0], ["通用汽车零部件", 13.0], ["汽车通用零部件智能制造装备", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.6, "ret_prev2_year": -12.7, "ret_ytd": -22.5, "ret_pivot": 51.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 53, "hard": 72, "bondness": 23}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 3 亿,占总资产 45%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 30.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.8%,股息率 0.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 83%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 45%)和定价权(毛利率 30.5% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 2.06 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.6 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "易实精密:PE 比行业中位低 0.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.6个百分点。"]}}