{"F": {"ts_code": "920218.BJ", "name": "新天力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20260529", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.87, "pe_ttm": 28.182, "pb": 1.7226, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 148656.2579, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.5, 17.1, 18.8, 18.3, 19.4], "rev_series": [null, 9.4, 10.2, 11.0, 10.6], "np_series": [null, 0.4, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8], "roe_series": [14.8, 10.1, 13.9, 14.2, 13.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.3, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 18.8, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 13.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.5, "fix_assets": 5.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.72, "capex_dep": 0.92, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 27.6, "debt_mv": 3.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 3.8, "np_cagr3": 28.0, "rev_yoy": -4.2, "np_yoy": -55.0, "np_vol": 30.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["塑料食品容器", 48.0], ["纸制食品容器", 1.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 50, "hard": 70, "bondness": 17}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 95%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.92 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.2 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "新天力:PE 比行业中位低 0.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.9个百分点。"]}}