{"F": {"ts_code": "920207.BJ", "name": "众诚科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220923", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.18, "pe_ttm": 93.6623, "pb": 7.3411, "dv_ttm": 0.6471, "total_mv": 213708.01, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.6, 24.2, 27.5, 26.1, 18.9, 22.1], "rev_series": [4.6, 5.1, 3.8, 3.4, 3.3, 4.2], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.2, 0.0, -0.3, 0.0], "roe_series": [25.9, 20.2, 6.9, 1.3, -10.6, 0.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.7, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 4.6, "gm_median": 24.2, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 6.0, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 1.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.2, "fix_assets": 0.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.34, "capex_dep": 0.75, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 63.7, "debt_mv": 5.9, "payout": 850.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 3.4, "np_cagr3": -66.0, "rev_yoy": 41.5, "np_yoy": 146.8, "np_vol": 337.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["数字化解决方案", 73.0], ["信息设备销售", 17.0], ["信息技术服务", 10.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.3, "ret_prev2_year": 27.7, "ret_ytd": 4.0, "ret_pivot": 244.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 54, "hard": 7, "bondness": 64}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 93.7 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 0.75 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 93.7 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "众诚科技:PE 比行业中位高 11.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 24.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点。"]}}