{"F": {"ts_code": "920204.BJ", "name": "沪江材料", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "塑料包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.71, "pe_ttm": 48.9019, "pb": 2.5816, "dv_ttm": 0.5835, "total_mv": 129268.5697, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.5, 32.6, 27.8, 31.7, 30.7, 28.9], "rev_series": [2.3, 3.3, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 3.2], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2], "roe_series": [16.0, 18.2, 8.4, 6.6, 5.3, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.5, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 30.7, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -8.7, "npm_median": 10.2, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.6, "fix_assets": 3.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.58, "capex_dep": 1.14, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 18.9, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": 31.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.7, "np_cagr3": -9.9, "rev_yoy": 18.7, "np_yoy": 52.1, "np_vol": 21.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["铝塑复合重包袋", 32.0], ["PE重包袋", 8.0], ["铝塑复合内袋", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.0, "ret_prev2_year": 55.4, "ret_ytd": -22.3, "ret_pivot": 107.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 52, "hard": 89, "bondness": 32}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 3 亿,占总资产 56%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 30.7%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.7 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -0.7%,股息率 0.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 90%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 56%)和定价权(毛利率 30.7% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.7%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 56%,资本开支/折旧 1.14 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.9 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "沪江材料:PE 比行业中位高 10.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.8个百分点。"]}}