{"F": {"ts_code": "920195.BJ", "name": "三祥科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221230", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.24, "pe_ttm": 12.3962, "pb": 1.5522, "dv_ttm": 1.5106, "total_mv": 129791.72, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.0, 30.9, 30.4, 33.9, 34.0, 33.1], "rev_series": [5.7, 6.1, 7.2, 8.3, 9.7, 11.4], "np_series": [0.4, 0.8, 0.6, 0.8, 0.6, 1.1], "roe_series": [14.9, 22.6, 12.9, 13.0, 9.1, 14.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.4, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 11.1, "ocf_yield": 13.5, "gm_median": 33.1, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 10.0, "roe_median": 13.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.1, "fix_assets": 4.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.55, "capex_dep": 1.0, "interest_debt": 3.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 43.0, "debt_mv": 28.0, "payout": 17.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 16.1, "np_cagr3": 19.9, "rev_yoy": 1.3, "np_yoy": -18.1, "np_vol": 44.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 60.0, "earn_yield": 8.1, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 10.5, "fwd_pe2": 9.0, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 0.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["总成产品", 39.0], ["胶管产品", 7.0], ["胶管", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 102.4, "ret_prev2_year": -32.8, "ret_ytd": -38.9, "ret_pivot": 104.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 27, "pricing": 57, "hard": 48, "bondness": 25}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 4 亿,占总资产 30%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 33.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 11.1%,股息率 1.5%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 60%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 30%)和定价权(毛利率 33.1% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.1%(经营现金流/市值 13.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 1.00 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.4 倍 粗算,约 60%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "三祥科技:PE 比行业中位低 17.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.6个百分点。"]}}