{"F": {"ts_code": "920190.BJ", "name": "雷神科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.6, "pe_ttm": 92.3276, "pb": 3.1102, "dv_ttm": 0.4699, "total_mv": 266000.0027, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.4, 12.3, 11.5, 8.6, 7.9, 8.0], "rev_series": [22.5, 26.4, 24.2, 25.6, 29.6, 30.1], "np_series": [0.6, 0.8, 0.7, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [17.6, 19.1, 11.0, 4.2, 2.5, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.7, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -4.6, "ocf_yield": -4.2, "gm_median": 8.6, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 2.0, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.1, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.11, "capex_dep": 1.56, "interest_debt": 7.2, "debt_ebitda": 12.9, "debt_ratio": 57.1, "debt_mv": 27.0, "payout": 54.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 7.6, "np_cagr3": -30.7, "rev_yoy": 4.1, "np_yoy": 41.3, "np_vol": 28.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 89.3, "fwd_pe2": 71.1, "fwd_g1": 3.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 3.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["笔记本", 25.0], ["游戏笔记本", 25.0], ["电脑配件及其他", 13.0], ["游戏外部设备", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.5, "ret_prev2_year": -2.1, "ret_ytd": -4.5, "ret_pivot": 124.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 41, "hard": 8, "bondness": 49}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 92.3 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 5%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 89.3 倍,次年 71.1 倍,PEG 3.43。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.6%(经营现金流/市值 -4.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 1.56 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 92.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "雷神科技:PE 比行业中位高 40.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 27.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点。"]}}