{"F": {"ts_code": "920188.BJ", "name": "悦龙科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "橡胶", "sw3": "其他橡胶制品", "ind": "橡胶", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20260330", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.2, "pe_ttm": 20.824, "pb": 2.4164, "dv_ttm": 2.1552, "total_mv": 192544.2194, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.0, 52.6, 59.7, 58.0], "rev_series": [1.9, 2.2, 2.7, 2.9], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.8, 0.9], "roe_series": [17.7, 21.0, 23.3, 19.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 7.1, "ocf_yield": 8.0, "gm_median": 55.3, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 29.5, "roe_median": 20.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.1, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.42, "capex_dep": 1.49, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 13.0, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 33.8, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 15.2, "np_cagr3": 23.5, "rev_yoy": 11.2, "np_yoy": 4.1, "np_vol": 12.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 18.7, "fwd_pe2": 15.9, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.04, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["工业用特种软管", 20.0], ["工业专用软管", 20.0], ["陆地石油天然气柔性软管", 15.0], ["陆地油气柔性管道", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 68, "hard": 19, "bondness": 30}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 12%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 55.3%,稳定度 94%、ROE 近 5 年中位 20.4%。", "自由现金流/市值 7.1%,分红率 34%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 55.3%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.1%(经营现金流/市值 8.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 55.3%,稳定度 94%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.49 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.8 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「橡胶」23 家中位:PE 29.4 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 23.7% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 47%。", "悦龙科技:PE 比行业中位低 8.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 31.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.9个百分点。"]}}