{"F": {"ts_code": "920177.BJ", "name": "恒道科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20260416", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.3, "pe_ttm": 17.7619, "pb": 1.8714, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 127137.6, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [56.1, 55.2, 50.9, 48.6], "rev_series": [1.4, 1.7, 2.3, 3.0], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.7, 0.8], "roe_series": [34.7, 27.0, 24.2, 21.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -1.7, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 53.1, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 28.0, "roe_median": 25.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.0, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.87, "capex_dep": 4.65, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 11.2, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 27.8, "np_cagr3": 26.9, "rev_yoy": 7.2, "np_yoy": -18.9, "np_vol": 10.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 13.9, "fwd_pe2": 12.4, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.16, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["热流道系统", 47.0], ["其他主营", 2.0], ["其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 67, "hard": 0, "bondness": 0}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 17.8 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 53.1%、固定资产占比 0%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 53.1%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 53.1%,稳定度 94%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 4.65 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.8 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "恒道科技:PE 比行业中位低 24.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 26.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.0个百分点。"]}}