{"F": {"ts_code": "920171.BJ", "name": "志晟信息", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20211115", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.93, "pe_ttm": 514.5896, "pb": 8.2019, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 179718.1904, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.3, 36.8, 25.3, 29.2, 17.9, 32.1], "rev_series": [3.0, 2.8, 2.4, 1.5, 1.5, 2.4], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, -0.2, -0.7, -0.8, 0.0], "roe_series": [19.0, 12.6, -5.2, -21.5, -30.2, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.8, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 29.2, "gm_std": 6.4, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -12.0, "npm_median": -8.6, "roe_median": -5.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.8, "fix_assets": 0.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.2, "capex_dep": 1.23, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 6.2, "debt_ratio": 44.2, "debt_mv": 4.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 0.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 44.7, "np_yoy": -56.9, "np_vol": 127.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智慧城市业务", 39.0], ["智慧城市", 39.0], ["运维及服务业务", 7.0], ["租赁及维护", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.4, "ret_prev2_year": 86.1, "ret_ytd": -23.4, "ret_pivot": 208.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 20, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 515 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 44%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.2%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 1.23 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 514.6 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "志晟信息:PE 比行业中位高 430.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点。"]}}