{"F": {"ts_code": "920169.BJ", "name": "七丰精工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220415", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.97, "pe_ttm": 61.4533, "pb": 4.9348, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 177517.7977, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.2, 29.0, 28.8, 26.4, 23.2, 22.7], "rev_series": [1.7, 2.2, 2.0, 1.7, 1.8, 2.1], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.2, 0.1, 0.3], "roe_series": [40.9, 28.9, 16.3, 6.4, 4.5, 8.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.1, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -4.5, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 26.4, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": 13.3, "roe_median": 8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.8, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.93, "capex_dep": 7.52, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 19.1, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 50.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 1.1, "np_cagr3": -8.1, "rev_yoy": 5.1, "np_yoy": 0.1, "np_vol": 53.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["紧固件销售", 30.0], ["紧固件", 30.0], ["其他收入", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 136.8, "ret_prev2_year": 38.1, "ret_ytd": -29.9, "ret_pivot": 274.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 50, "hard": 67, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 61.5 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%、固定资产占比 42%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 7.52 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 61.5 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "七丰精工:PE 比行业中位高 10.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.0个百分点。"]}}