{"F": {"ts_code": "920161.BJ", "name": "龙辰科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "被动元件", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20260527", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.3, "pe_ttm": 38.3724, "pb": 2.9492, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 303266.4884, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.2, 31.4, 41.1, 33.4, 29.4, 33.4], "rev_series": [null, null, 3.4, 3.7, 6.0, 6.4], "np_series": [null, null, 0.7, 0.4, 0.7, 0.9], "roe_series": [1.8, 23.8, 21.1, 9.2, 12.3, 12.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.6, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_ttm": -3.5, "fcf_yield": -11.4, "ocf_yield": -4.7, "gm_median": 33.4, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 15.9, "npm_median": 15.5, "roe_median": 12.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.9, "fix_assets": 8.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.95, "capex_dep": 3.9, "interest_debt": 6.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.5, "debt_ratio": 40.7, "debt_mv": 21.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 23.2, "np_cagr3": 6.9, "rev_yoy": 5.6, "np_yoy": -13.2, "np_vol": 571.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 30.5, "fwd_pe2": 25.1, "fwd_g1": 26.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 1.39, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["基膜", 35.0], ["金属镀膜", 7.0], ["金属化膜", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 59, "hard": 77, "bondness": 10}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 38.4 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.4%、固定资产占比 48%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 48%、毛利率 33.4% 两条都占,但所在行业(电子)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.4%(经营现金流/市值 -4.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.4%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 15.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 3.90 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.4 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "龙辰科技:PE 比行业中位低 26.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.0个百分点。"]}}