{"F": {"ts_code": "920160.BJ", "name": "北矿检测", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "专业服务", "sw3": "检测服务", "ind": "专业服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20251118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.95, "pe_ttm": 25.6449, "pb": 4.0899, "dv_ttm": 1.2531, "total_mv": 225993.6, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [63.2, 65.6, 62.7, 64.7, 61.4, 59.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 0.9, 1.1, 1.5, 1.9], "np_series": [null, null, 0.3, 0.5, 0.6, 0.8], "roe_series": [17.3, 26.2, 18.5, 20.4, 19.5, 18.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.0, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 4.8, "gm_median": 62.7, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 40.8, "roe_median": 19.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.1, "fix_assets": 0.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.09, "capex_dep": 1.1, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 15.9, "debt_mv": 2.2, "payout": 28.4, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 26.9, "np_cagr3": 34.2, "rev_yoy": 14.3, "np_yoy": 29.7, "np_vol": 28.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 25.3, "fwd_pe2": 21.2, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 1.33, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["检验检测服务收入", 33.0], ["检验检测业务", 33.0], ["仪器销售", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -21.9, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 72, "hard": 3, "bondness": 19}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 2%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 62.7%,稳定度 96%、ROE 近 5 年中位 19.5%。", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%,分红率 28%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 62.7%),硬资产占比 2%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 62.7%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 1.10 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.6 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业服务」33 家中位:PE 36.6 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 45.6% / 固定资产占比 24% / 分红率 43%。", "北矿检测:PE 比行业中位低 11.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 22.2个百分点。"]}}