{"F": {"ts_code": "920159.BJ", "name": "农大科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "复合肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20260128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.23, "pe_ttm": 22.3722, "pb": 2.2302, "dv_ttm": 2.4822, "total_mv": 244948.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.7, 13.3, 15.0, 18.8, 17.0], "rev_series": [null, 26.8, 26.4, 23.6, 23.5], "np_series": [null, 1.0, 1.0, 1.5, 1.4], "roe_series": [32.2, 28.3, 27.4, 29.5, 22.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.6, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -7.6, "ocf_yield": -4.3, "gm_median": 17.0, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 28.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.8, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.23, "capex_dep": 2.16, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 38.0, "debt_mv": 8.4, "payout": 33.8, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -4.2, "np_cagr3": 12.1, "rev_yoy": 7.2, "np_yoy": -26.2, "np_vol": 23.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["新型肥料", 80.0], ["新型肥料中间体", 15.0], ["普通肥料", 4.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 46, "hard": 35, "bondness": 50}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.4 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.6%(经营现金流/市值 -4.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%,稳定度 85%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 2.16 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.4 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "农大科技:PE 比行业中位高 1.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.8个百分点。"]}}