{"F": {"ts_code": "920158.BJ", "name": "长江能科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20251016", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.65, "pe_ttm": 45.9432, "pb": 3.359, "dv_ttm": 2.8902, "total_mv": 172664.38, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.5, 42.7, 47.8, 32.4, 41.1, 50.5], "rev_series": [null, null, 2.2, 3.5, 3.1, 2.9], "np_series": [null, null, 0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.5], "roe_series": [14.0, 12.2, 15.9, 14.1, 15.1, 11.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.0, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 4.6, "gm_median": 42.7, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -7.7, "npm_median": 15.7, "roe_median": 14.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.0, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.36, "capex_dep": 1.07, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 28.8, "debt_mv": 1.7, "payout": 74.5, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 10.4, "np_cagr3": 10.2, "rev_yoy": 4.0, "np_yoy": -92.4, "np_vol": 29.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["其他设备", 17.0], ["其他能源化工设备", 17.0], ["电脱盐、电脱水设备", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -19.6, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 55, "hard": 29, "bondness": 54}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 45.9 倍、股息率 2.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 42.7%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 42.7%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 42.7%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.07 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.9 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "长江能科:PE 比行业中位高 3.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.4个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}