{"F": {"ts_code": "920152.BJ", "name": "昆工科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电专用设备", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220901", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.55, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 10.069, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 149190.5135, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.2, 12.4, 14.3, 13.8, 12.5, 0.6], "rev_series": [4.0, 5.7, 5.6, 4.9, 6.0, 6.3], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 0.4, -0.0, -0.3, -2.1], "roe_series": [14.0, 12.7, 11.8, -0.2, -8.1, -70.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.9, "np_ttm": -2.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 3.2, "ocf_yield": 9.3, "gm_median": 12.5, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.59, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": -0.3, "roe_median": -0.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.9, "fix_assets": 8.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.07, "capex_dep": 1.86, "interest_debt": 5.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 86.0, "debt_mv": 34.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 3.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -13.2, "np_yoy": -45.1, "np_vol": 1215.3, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 9.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["阳极板", 30.0], ["阳极产品", 30.0], ["阴极板", 10.0], ["阴极产品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 99.1, "ret_prev2_year": -35.5, "ret_ytd": -39.0, "ret_pivot": 77.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 33, "hard": 89, "bondness": 19}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 56%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点;资产负债率 86%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 56%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.5%,稳定度 59%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.2%(经营现金流/市值 9.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.5%,稳定度 59%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 56%,资本开支/折旧 1.86 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "昆工科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.1个百分点。"]}}