{"F": {"ts_code": "920145.BJ", "name": "恒合股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环保设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "环保设备Ⅲ", "ind": "环保设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20211115", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.9, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.0506, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 76899.5, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [58.3, 51.1, 46.6, 32.6, 25.8, 22.5], "rev_series": [1.2, 0.7, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.6], "np_series": [0.3, 0.2, 0.1, -0.1, -0.1, -0.1], "roe_series": [21.8, 7.5, 2.0, -3.0, -3.6, -3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 0.4, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 32.6, "gm_std": 11.3, "gm_stab": 0.65, "gm_chg_2022": -11.8, "npm_median": -18.3, "roe_median": -3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.1, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.05, "capex_dep": 0.35, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 5.0, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 1.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -52.2, "np_yoy": -66.3, "np_vol": 88.9, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["油气回收治理设备", 26.0], ["二次油气回收系统", 26.0], ["油气回收在线监测系统", 15.0], ["在线监测", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 178.9, "ret_prev2_year": 16.0, "ret_ytd": -56.9, "ret_pivot": 140.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 53, "bondness": 22}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 5%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.6%,稳定度 65%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.6%,稳定度 65%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 0.35 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环保设备Ⅱ」27 家中位:PE 34.2 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 27.4% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 41%。", "恒合股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.7个百分点。"]}}