{"F": {"ts_code": "920132.BJ", "name": "泰鹏智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "成品家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20231116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.45, "pe_ttm": 48.0326, "pb": 3.83, "dv_ttm": 0.814, "total_mv": 101749.284, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.5, 16.7, 26.6, 28.8, 19.3, 22.5], "rev_series": [2.9, 4.7, 4.1, 2.7, 3.0, 3.0], "np_series": [0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [52.0, 47.6, 48.7, 16.8, 8.6, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.8, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 22.5, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": 7.1, "npm_median": 7.2, "roe_median": 16.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.8, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.83, "capex_dep": 3.56, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 37.1, "debt_mv": 4.2, "payout": 34.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -10.1, "np_cagr3": -25.3, "rev_yoy": 65.9, "np_yoy": 23.6, "np_vol": 40.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 33.7, "fwd_pe2": 26.2, "fwd_g1": 42.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 1.16, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["硬顶帐篷", 32.0], ["其他主营业务", 27.0], ["其他", 27.0], ["软顶帐篷", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.6, "ret_prev2_year": -7.3, "ret_ytd": -23.5, "ret_pivot": 80.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 50, "hard": 54, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 48.0 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%、固定资产占比 34%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 3.56 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.0 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "泰鹏智能:PE 比行业中位高 19.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点。"]}}