{"F": {"ts_code": "920128.BJ", "name": "胜业电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "被动元件", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20241129", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.38, "pe_ttm": 204.0211, "pb": 2.9392, "dv_ttm": 0.5441, "total_mv": 149227.22, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.4, 23.3, 22.4, 27.2, 24.5, 22.6], "rev_series": [null, null, 5.1, 5.7, 6.3, 5.5], "np_series": [null, null, 0.3, 0.5, 0.5, 0.2], "roe_series": [10.8, 10.9, 12.3, 15.6, 11.5, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.5, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -7.1, "ocf_yield": -1.0, "gm_median": 23.3, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -6.0, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.2, "fix_assets": 3.5, "goodwill_ratio": 4.7, "pb_calc": 2.94, "capex_dep": 3.98, "interest_debt": 2.8, "debt_ebitda": 6.5, "debt_ratio": 54.1, "debt_mv": 19.0, "payout": 47.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 2.6, "np_cagr3": -13.7, "rev_yoy": 32.4, "np_yoy": -64.3, "np_vol": 38.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["薄膜电容器", 35.0], ["薄膜电容器材料", 8.0], ["电能质量治理配套产品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.0, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -33.9, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 48, "hard": 45, "bondness": 52}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 204.0 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.1%(经营现金流/市值 -1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 3.98 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 204.0 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "胜业电气:PE 比行业中位高 138.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点。"]}}