{"F": {"ts_code": "920125.BJ", "name": "鸿仕达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "其他自动化设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20260424", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 128.05, "pe_ttm": 81.5697, "pb": 10.1899, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 719128.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.6, 29.4, 27.6, 31.2], "rev_series": [4.0, 4.8, 6.5, 6.6], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.7], "roe_series": [13.2, 12.7, 13.6, 15.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.4, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 29.0, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 8.2, "roe_median": 13.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.4, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.19, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 34.8, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 18.7, "np_cagr3": 26.5, "rev_yoy": 38.7, "np_yoy": 332.0, "np_vol": 9.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 49.2, "fwd_pe2": 19.7, "fwd_g1": 66.0, "fwd_g2": 150.0, "peg": 0.33, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能自动化设备(线)、配件及耗材", 33.0], ["智能自动化设备(线)", 33.0], ["智能自动化设备(线)、配件及耗材：智能自动化设备", 33.0], ["智能自动化设备(线)、配件及耗材：配件及耗材", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 56, "hard": 21, "bondness": 2}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 81.6 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 49.2 倍,次年 19.7 倍,PEG 0.33。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.0%,稳定度 96%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 81.6 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "鸿仕达:PE 比行业中位高 4.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点。"]}}