{"F": {"ts_code": "920123.BJ", "name": "芭薇股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "美容护理", "sw2": "化妆品", "sw3": "化妆品制造及其他", "ind": "化妆品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20240329", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.8, "pe_ttm": 30.2869, "pb": 3.1553, "dv_ttm": 1.6949, "total_mv": 131617.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.0, 29.3, 30.5, 33.2, 26.7, 23.1], "rev_series": [3.1, 4.2, 4.6, 4.7, 6.9, 8.4], "np_series": [0.3, 0.2, 0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.4], "roe_series": [17.6, 9.3, 12.6, 12.8, 12.5, 9.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.3, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 8.2, "gm_median": 29.3, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 12.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.8, "fix_assets": 3.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 3.16, "capex_dep": 2.55, "interest_debt": 2.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 52.9, "debt_mv": 16.5, "payout": 56.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 22.4, "np_cagr3": 0.5, "rev_yoy": 25.0, "np_yoy": 28.3, "np_vol": 36.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 28.8, "fwd_pe2": 24.1, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 1.44, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["护肤系列", 30.0], ["护肤品(除面膜)", 30.0], ["面膜", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.7, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -20.0, "ret_pivot": 87.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 53, "hard": 67, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 30.3 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%、固定资产占比 42%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 8.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 2.55 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.3 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化妆品」16 家中位:PE 31.5 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 53.1% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 50%。", "芭薇股份:PE 比行业中位低 1.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 23.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.7个百分点。"]}}