{"F": {"ts_code": "920116.BJ", "name": "星图测控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20250102", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 45.5, "pe_ttm": 105.89, "pb": 17.1304, "dv_ttm": 0.2009, "total_mv": 1017766.75, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [66.9, 55.2, 56.9, 52.2, 52.8, 50.8], "rev_series": [null, null, 1.4, 2.3, 2.9, 3.2], "np_series": [null, null, 0.5, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0], "roe_series": [34.5, 76.7, 56.9, 37.0, 24.3, 19.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.0, "gm_median": 52.8, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -10.0, "npm_median": 31.4, "roe_median": 37.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.0, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 17.13, "capex_dep": 28.51, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 27.1, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 17.4, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 31.4, "np_cagr3": 25.7, "rev_yoy": -8.5, "np_yoy": -14.6, "np_vol": 93.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 59.1, "fwd_pe2": 47.9, "fwd_g1": 79.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 2.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["技术开发与服务", 44.0], ["软件销售", 2.0], ["系统集成设备", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -24.5, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 64, "hard": 13, "bondness": 8}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 105.9 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(7 篇研报)前瞻 PE 59.1 倍,次年 47.9 倍,PEG 2.57。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 52.8%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.8%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 28.51 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 105.9 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "星图测控:PE 比行业中位高 21.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点。"]}}