{"F": {"ts_code": "920111.BJ", "name": "聚星科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "配电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20241111", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.38, "pe_ttm": 17.6374, "pb": 3.9955, "dv_ttm": 0.3524, "total_mv": 440328.471, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.6, 21.8, 20.5, 24.1, 21.7, 18.8], "rev_series": [null, null, 4.9, 6.0, 10.0, 12.3], "np_series": [null, null, 0.4, 0.8, 1.2, 1.2], "roe_series": [20.8, 15.2, 8.7, 16.6, 17.4, 13.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.3, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": -2.9, "fcf_ttm": -4.1, "fcf_yield": -9.3, "ocf_yield": -6.5, "gm_median": 21.7, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -7.1, "npm_median": 9.7, "roe_median": 15.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.3, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.0, "capex_dep": 7.97, "interest_debt": 4.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 53.8, "debt_mv": 10.1, "payout": 16.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 35.9, "np_cagr3": 48.4, "rev_yoy": 148.1, "np_yoy": 240.0, "np_vol": 52.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 17.8, "fwd_pe2": 13.3, "fwd_g1": -1.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 0.52, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电触头", 55.0], ["电接触材料", 28.0], ["电接触元件", 10.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.8, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 22.1, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 47, "hard": 16, "bondness": 12}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 17.6 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.7%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.3%(经营现金流/市值 -6.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 7.97 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.6 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "聚星科技:PE 比行业中位低 25.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点。"]}}