{"F": {"ts_code": "920101.BJ", "name": "志高机械", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械整机", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20250814", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.01, "pe_ttm": 21.0246, "pb": 1.963, "dv_ttm": 0.8398, "total_mv": 212297.4605, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.0, 20.4, 24.4, 27.5, 27.4, 27.9], "rev_series": [8.7, 8.8, 8.0, 8.4, 8.9, 9.1], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.1, 1.1], "roe_series": [23.8, 19.8, 22.8, 23.5, 20.4, 13.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.5, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 27.4, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 5.4, "npm_median": 11.8, "roe_median": 20.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.3, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.96, "capex_dep": 1.45, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 22.5, "debt_mv": 2.1, "payout": 12.9, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 4.4, "np_cagr3": 8.1, "rev_yoy": -11.1, "np_yoy": -19.0, "np_vol": 12.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 10.8, "fwd_pe2": 8.7, "fwd_g1": 95.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.45, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["钻机", 22.0], ["螺杆机", 18.0], ["配件及其他", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -39.9, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 56, "hard": 31, "bondness": 26}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.0 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.4%、固定资产占比 19%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.4%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 1.45 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.0 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "志高机械:PE 比行业中位低 7.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点。"]}}