{"F": {"ts_code": "920100.BJ", "name": "三协电机", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电机Ⅱ", "sw3": "电机Ⅲ", "ind": "电机Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20250908", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.75, "pe_ttm": 62.5648, "pb": 7.288, "dv_ttm": 1.7012, "total_mv": 338415.6405, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.0, 19.9, 22.3, 28.5, 28.0, 26.4], "rev_series": [null, null, 2.9, 3.6, 4.2, 5.5], "np_series": [null, null, 0.3, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6], "roe_series": [25.5, 23.8, 18.5, 24.6, 22.3, 16.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.6, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 26.4, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 11.0, "roe_median": 22.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.6, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 7.29, "capex_dep": 5.68, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 40.2, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 77.2, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 24.2, "np_cagr3": 30.8, "rev_yoy": 41.6, "np_yoy": -20.0, "np_vol": 28.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 49.2, "fwd_pe2": 39.2, "fwd_g1": 27.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 1.89, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["步进电机", 42.0], ["无刷电机", 28.0], ["伺服电机", 10.0], ["其他业务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -37.5, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 48, "hard": 28, "bondness": 38}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 62.6 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 49.2 倍,次年 39.2 倍,PEG 1.89。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 5.68 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 62.6 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电机Ⅱ」28 家中位:PE 46.1 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 38%。", "三协电机:PE 比行业中位高 16.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点。"]}}