{"F": {"ts_code": "920098.BJ", "name": "科隆新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "橡胶", "sw3": "其他橡胶制品", "ind": "橡胶", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20241205", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.78, "pe_ttm": 29.6235, "pb": 1.7047, "dv_ttm": 1.5167, "total_mv": 160851.6899, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.9, 39.0, 36.8, 41.5, 41.3, 34.4], "rev_series": [null, null, 3.3, 4.4, 4.8, 4.8], "np_series": [null, null, 0.5, 0.8, 0.9, 0.6], "roe_series": [8.9, 16.8, 10.7, 14.9, 11.7, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 39.0, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -5.2, "npm_median": 18.0, "roe_median": 11.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.0, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.7, "capex_dep": 1.77, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 20.7, "debt_mv": 2.3, "payout": 32.1, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 13.8, "np_cagr3": 4.2, "rev_yoy": 5.6, "np_yoy": -15.8, "np_vol": 59.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["煤矿辅助设备", 17.0], ["煤矿用辅助运输设备", 17.0], ["橡塑新材料产品", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.7, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -34.9, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 56, "hard": 0, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 29.6 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 39.0%、固定资产占比 0%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.0%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 1.77 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.6 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「橡胶」23 家中位:PE 29.4 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 23.7% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 47%。", "科隆新材:PE 比行业中位高 0.2倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 27.0个百分点。"]}}