{"F": {"ts_code": "920092.BJ", "name": "汉鑫科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20211115", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.88, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.4661, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 185494.1436, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.3, 32.6, 35.0, 25.4, 34.8, 29.6], "rev_series": [2.5, 2.7, 1.5, 3.6, 2.7, 1.1], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, -0.1, 0.3, 0.2, -0.4], "roe_series": [22.5, 16.6, -3.1, 8.0, 3.9, -10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 0.9, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 32.6, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.4, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.47, "capex_dep": 3.68, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 46.8, "debt_mv": 5.9, "payout": 22.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -11.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -24.1, "np_yoy": 16.8, "np_vol": 230.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["数字城市解决方案及建设", 31.0], ["数字城市", 31.0], ["工业AI集成应用解决方案", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.1, "ret_prev2_year": 31.1, "ret_ytd": -20.2, "ret_pivot": 73.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 28, "bondness": 31}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 47%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.6%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.6%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 3.68 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "汉鑫科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.8个百分点。"]}}