{"F": {"ts_code": "920091.BJ", "name": "大鹏工业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20251121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.92, "pe_ttm": 130.7915, "pb": 4.0954, "dv_ttm": 1.0695, "total_mv": 183903.8784, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.6, 32.5, 35.8, 31.0, 33.9, 30.9], "rev_series": [null, null, 2.5, 2.6, 2.6, 2.4], "np_series": [null, null, 0.4, 0.5, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [20.4, 17.2, 20.5, 19.4, 14.7, 9.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.8, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 0.0, "gm_median": 32.5, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 16.3, "roe_median": 17.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.0, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.1, "capex_dep": 3.38, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 16.8, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -1.2, "np_cagr3": -2.2, "rev_yoy": -43.6, "np_yoy": -147.4, "np_vol": 23.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["整机产品", 22.0], ["工业精密清洗装备", 22.0], ["视觉检测设备", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -62.3, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 57, "hard": 0, "bondness": 43}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 130.8 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 0%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.5%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 3.38 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 130.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "大鹏工业:PE 比行业中位高 88.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.0个百分点。"]}}