{"F": {"ts_code": "920089.BJ", "name": "禾昌聚合", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "改性塑料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20211109", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.42, "pe_ttm": 13.1806, "pb": 1.5521, "dv_ttm": 0.8859, "total_mv": 204094.8728, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.5, 16.5, 16.2, 17.8, 16.3, 18.5], "rev_series": [8.0, 9.8, 11.2, 14.2, 16.1, 19.7], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1.2, 1.2, 1.7], "roe_series": [13.2, 11.5, 10.4, 12.0, 11.3, 13.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.7, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -6.1, "ocf_yield": -3.5, "gm_median": 16.5, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.4, "npm_median": 8.2, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.9, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.55, "capex_dep": 1.94, "interest_debt": 2.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 35.5, "debt_mv": 10.8, "payout": 11.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 20.7, "np_cagr3": 22.1, "rev_yoy": -0.0, "np_yoy": -15.7, "np_vol": 11.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 10.1, "fwd_pe2": 8.5, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 0.53, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["改性聚丙烯", 85.0], ["其他改性塑料", 11.0], ["塑料片材", 2.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 77.1, "ret_prev2_year": -11.2, "ret_ytd": -31.2, "ret_pivot": 63.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 48, "hard": 24, "bondness": 12}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 13.2 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 16.5%、固定资产占比 15%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.1%(经营现金流/市值 -3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 1.94 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.2 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "禾昌聚合:PE 比行业中位低 27.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 17.0个百分点。"]}}