{"F": {"ts_code": "920087.BJ", "name": "秋乐种业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "种子", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221207", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.02, "pe_ttm": 140.737, "pb": 5.9693, "dv_ttm": 0.368, "total_mv": 314210.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.7, 31.7, 32.8, 32.1, 27.9, 26.5], "rev_series": [2.7, 3.4, 4.4, 5.3, 3.9, 3.3], "np_series": [0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 0.5, 0.1], "roe_series": [9.1, 16.3, 16.4, 15.4, 9.1, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.4, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 31.7, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 2.0, "npm_median": 12.9, "roe_median": 15.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.5, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.97, "capex_dep": 3.7, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 28.2, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 48.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -8.9, "np_cagr3": -41.2, "rev_yoy": 20.3, "np_yoy": 47.8, "np_vol": 61.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 158.5, "fwd_pe2": 95.1, "fwd_g1": -11.0, "fwd_g2": 67.0, "peg": 2.37, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["花生种子", 15.0], ["花生种", 15.0], ["玉米种子", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.6, "ret_prev2_year": 4.7, "ret_ytd": 20.0, "ret_pivot": 266.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 57, "hard": 22, "bondness": 39}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 140.7 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 158.5 倍,次年 95.1 倍,PEG 2.37。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.7%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 3.70 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 140.7 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "秋乐种业:PE 比行业中位高 69.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点。"]}}