{"F": {"ts_code": "920077.BJ", "name": "吉林碳谷", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "其他化学纤维", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20210831", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.28, "pe_ttm": 40.5197, "pb": 3.1243, "dv_ttm": 0.7003, "total_mv": 837150.5101, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.4, 40.7, 38.8, 24.7, 16.3, 17.7], "rev_series": [11.0, 12.1, 20.8, 20.5, 16.0, 25.4], "np_series": [1.4, 3.1, 6.3, 2.3, 0.9, 1.8], "roe_series": [55.5, 50.6, 53.8, 11.8, 3.9, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.7, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 24.7, "gm_std": 10.3, "gm_stab": 0.58, "gm_chg_2022": 19.4, "npm_median": 11.3, "roe_median": 11.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 60.0, "fix_assets": 41.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.12, "capex_dep": 0.59, "interest_debt": 35.4, "debt_ebitda": 5.7, "debt_ratio": 61.1, "debt_mv": 42.3, "payout": 28.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 6.8, "np_cagr3": -34.3, "rev_yoy": 27.7, "np_yoy": 36.4, "np_vol": 82.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 30.1, "fwd_pe2": 23.3, "fwd_g1": 35.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 1.04, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["碳纤维原丝", 77.0], ["碳丝", 22.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 52.5, "ret_prev2_year": -32.1, "ret_ytd": -15.6, "ret_pivot": 104.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 64, "pricing": 44, "hard": 96, "bondness": 42}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 40.5 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.7%、固定资产占比 60%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 60%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.7%,稳定度 58%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.7%,稳定度 58%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 19.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 60%,资本开支/折旧 0.59 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 40.5 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "吉林碳谷:PE 比行业中位高 8.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.4个百分点。"]}}