{"F": {"ts_code": "920071.BJ", "name": "金钛股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "其他小金属", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20260903", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.04, "pe_ttm": 36.4167, "pb": 4.8904, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 715020.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.9, 8.0, 14.1, 13.9, 18.2], "rev_series": [10.8, 13.7, 16.8, 15.6, 16.8], "np_series": [0.8, 0.6, 1.3, 1.4, 2.0], "roe_series": [10.8, 6.5, 12.3, 11.5, 14.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.5, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": -5.9, "fcf_yield": -8.3, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 13.9, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 7.7, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 41.6, "fix_assets": 16.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.49, "capex_dep": 4.86, "interest_debt": 9.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 60.1, "debt_mv": 13.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 7.2, "np_cagr3": 52.1, "rev_yoy": 18.7, "np_yoy": 16.7, "np_vol": 59.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["海绵钛", 92.0], ["氯化镁", 7.0], ["其他业务(废料等)", 1.0], ["海绵锆", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 70, "hard": 67, "bondness": 20}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 17 亿,占总资产 42%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:其他小金属 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -8.3%,股息率 —,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 86%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 42%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.3%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.9%,稳定度 77%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 4.86 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 36.4 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "金钛股份:PE 比行业中位低 0.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.9个百分点。"]}}