{"F": {"ts_code": "920068.BJ", "name": "天工股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "其他小金属", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20250513", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.21, "pe_ttm": 122.7572, "pb": 8.2535, "dv_ttm": 1.2338, "total_mv": 1062727.6243, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.0, 12.5, 25.7, 25.5, 30.4, 25.7], "rev_series": [null, null, 3.8, 10.4, 8.0, 6.3], "np_series": [null, null, 0.7, 1.7, 1.7, 1.4], "roe_series": [1.9, 3.1, 10.4, 22.2, 18.4, 11.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 25.7, "gm_std": 6.0, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": 8.7, "npm_median": 18.3, "roe_median": 11.8, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 0.0, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.25, "capex_dep": 4.35, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 11.9, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 90.1, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 18.1, "np_cagr3": 26.0, "rev_yoy": -37.0, "np_yoy": -83.4, "np_vol": 96.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 51.6, "fwd_pe2": 40.3, "fwd_g1": 138.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 1.84, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["销售钛及钛合金产品", 32.0], ["钛加工材", 32.0], ["销售废料", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -16.5, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 70, "hard": 0, "bondness": 41}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 122.8 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 0%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 51.6 倍,次年 40.3 倍,PEG 1.84。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 25.7%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 4.35 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 122.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "天工股份:PE 比行业中位高 85.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 21.7个百分点。"]}}