{"F": {"ts_code": "920066.BJ", "name": "科拜尔", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "改性塑料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20241031", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.42, "pe_ttm": 33.5107, "pb": 2.7887, "dv_ttm": 0.5429, "total_mv": 115775.8265, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.3, 20.7, 17.0, 20.1, 17.4, 15.6], "rev_series": [null, null, 3.1, 3.9, 4.5, 4.5], "np_series": [null, null, 0.3, 0.5, 0.5, 0.3], "roe_series": [26.2, 22.7, 23.0, 26.0, 16.6, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -6.6, "ocf_yield": -4.2, "gm_median": 17.4, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -11.3, "npm_median": 10.1, "roe_median": 22.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.7, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.79, "capex_dep": 5.15, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 15.7, "debt_mv": 4.6, "payout": 28.4, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 14.0, "np_cagr3": -1.1, "rev_yoy": 13.7, "np_yoy": 46.9, "np_vol": 31.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 32.9, "fwd_pe2": 25.6, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 1.13, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["改性塑料", 83.0], ["色母料", 17.0], ["其他业务", 0.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.6, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -25.1, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 44, "hard": 25, "bondness": 23}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 33.5 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%、固定资产占比 16%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.6%(经营现金流/市值 -4.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 5.15 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.5 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "科拜尔:PE 比行业中位低 7.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.2个百分点。"]}}