{"F": {"ts_code": "920061.BJ", "name": "西磁科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20231221", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.61, "pe_ttm": 235.6212, "pb": 4.7486, "dv_ttm": 0.3815, "total_mv": 131740.19, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.9, 34.0, 35.8, 37.1, 29.7, 27.4], "rev_series": [0.8, 1.2, 1.7, 1.9, 1.2, 1.0], "np_series": [0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.2, 0.0], "roe_series": [12.2, 20.8, 29.1, 23.3, 7.4, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.0, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 34.0, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 16.2, "roe_median": 20.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.5, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.75, "capex_dep": 3.84, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 15.0, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 50.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -17.0, "np_cagr3": -48.0, "rev_yoy": 12.5, "np_yoy": 54.3, "np_vol": 68.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["过滤设备", 31.0], ["磁力过滤设备", 31.0], ["磁选棒", 24.0], ["吸重产品", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.2, "ret_prev2_year": -3.5, "ret_ytd": -33.8, "ret_pivot": 94.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 56, "hard": 22, "bondness": 40}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 235.6 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.0%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.0%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 3.84 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 235.6 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "西磁科技:PE 比行业中位高 193.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点。"]}}