{"F": {"ts_code": "920060.BJ", "name": "万源通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20241119", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.97, "pe_ttm": 35.0957, "pb": 3.2448, "dv_ttm": 2.2758, "total_mv": 334042.1246, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.5, 12.0, 17.8, 24.4, 22.4, 20.1], "rev_series": [null, null, 9.7, 9.8, 10.4, 11.8], "np_series": [null, null, 0.5, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2], "roe_series": [15.9, 5.4, 13.1, 24.0, 15.6, 11.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.3, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 20.1, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 0.4, "npm_median": 10.6, "roe_median": 13.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.5, "fix_assets": 5.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 3.24, "capex_dep": 2.47, "interest_debt": 2.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 45.9, "debt_mv": 6.1, "payout": 54.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 6.8, "np_cagr3": 33.4, "rev_yoy": 9.9, "np_yoy": -45.6, "np_vol": 85.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 22.7, "fwd_pe2": 18.5, "fwd_g1": 54.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["多层板", 23.0], ["双面板", 13.0], ["单面板", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.9, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -32.2, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 46, "hard": 46, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 35.1 倍、股息率 2.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.1%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.1%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 2.47 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.1 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "万源通:PE 比行业中位低 30.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点。"]}}