{"F": {"ts_code": "920058.BJ", "name": "华洋赛车", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "摩托车及其他", "sw3": "摩托车", "ind": "摩托车及其他", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230810", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.8, "pe_ttm": 56.6312, "pb": 5.0077, "dv_ttm": 2.0246, "total_mv": 172652.8188, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.5, 20.9, 21.9, 21.8, 22.3, 19.2], "rev_series": [3.2, 7.1, 4.2, 4.8, 5.3, 7.8], "np_series": [0.3, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5, 0.6, 0.5], "roe_series": [51.5, 105.3, 50.7, 20.0, 16.0, 14.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.7, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 21.8, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 4.4, "npm_median": 10.7, "roe_median": 20.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.5, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 5.01, "capex_dep": 4.58, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 52.9, "debt_mv": 4.4, "payout": 130.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 22.6, "np_cagr3": -7.9, "rev_yoy": -3.4, "np_yoy": -57.7, "np_vol": 96.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 27.8, "fwd_pe2": 24.3, "fwd_g1": 103.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 1.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["二轮摩托车", 23.0], ["两轮摩托车", 23.0], ["四轮沙滩车", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.8, "ret_prev2_year": 25.9, "ret_ytd": -10.3, "ret_pivot": 101.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 55, "hard": 55, "bondness": 51}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 56.6 倍、股息率 2.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%、固定资产占比 34%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 4.58 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 56.6 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「摩托车及其他」18 家中位:PE 28.8 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 17.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 50%。", "华洋赛车:PE 比行业中位高 27.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.4个百分点。"]}}