{"F": {"ts_code": "920057.BJ", "name": "百甲科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "专业工程", "sw3": "钢结构", "ind": "专业工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230314", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.13, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2972, "dv_ttm": 0.2915, "total_mv": 92988.0714, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.2, 18.6, 20.2, 18.9, 17.1, 12.1], "rev_series": [9.5, 10.0, 9.8, 10.0, 9.8, 15.4], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.4, -0.0, 0.1], "roe_series": [16.3, 11.9, 9.3, 6.2, -0.6, 1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.1, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": -2.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -23.9, "ocf_yield": -22.5, "gm_median": 18.6, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 2.0, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.8, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.3, "capex_dep": 0.57, "interest_debt": 5.1, "debt_ebitda": 8.9, "debt_ratio": 63.7, "debt_mv": 54.6, "payout": 23.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 16.2, "np_cagr3": -43.2, "rev_yoy": 10.0, "np_yoy": -135.1, "np_vol": 140.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["钢结构一体化解决方案", 19.0], ["工业钢结构一体化解决方案", 19.0], ["钢结构构件制造", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.7, "ret_prev2_year": 17.1, "ret_ytd": -20.7, "ret_pivot": 66.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 17, "bondness": 29}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 为负(亏损),估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -23.9%(经营现金流/市值 -22.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.57 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业工程」39 家中位:PE 40.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 13.6% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 38%。", "百甲科技:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点。"]}}