{"F": {"ts_code": "920055.BJ", "name": "隆源股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20260331", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.18, "pe_ttm": 13.0764, "pb": 1.5195, "dv_ttm": 2.0235, "total_mv": 184824.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.4, 31.4, 26.3, 27.1], "rev_series": [5.2, 7.0, 8.7, 10.3], "np_series": [1.0, 1.3, 1.3, 1.4], "roe_series": [23.6, 25.5, 21.0, 19.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.6, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 12.5, "gm_median": 29.2, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 16.4, "roe_median": 22.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.6, "fix_assets": 7.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.52, "capex_dep": 4.16, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 40.4, "debt_mv": 6.4, "payout": 19.6, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 25.5, "np_cagr3": 12.3, "rev_yoy": 27.4, "np_yoy": -2.6, "np_vol": 9.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["铝合金零部件", 32.0], ["铝合金", 32.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 54, "hard": 55, "bondness": 21}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 13.1 倍、股息率 2.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.2%、固定资产占比 35%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.2%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 12.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.2%,稳定度 91%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 4.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.1 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "隆源股份:PE 比行业中位低 17.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.1个百分点。"]}}