{"F": {"ts_code": "920046.BJ", "name": "亿能电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "输变电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221013", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.7, "pe_ttm": 135.5524, "pb": 8.2418, "dv_ttm": 0.3865, "total_mv": 209380.5, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.4, 28.1, 26.7, 22.2, 26.8, 25.3], "rev_series": [1.7, 2.1, 2.0, 2.2, 1.8, 2.1], "np_series": [0.2, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [24.9, 22.0, 9.4, 7.7, 5.8, 5.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.2, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -3.2, "ocf_yield": -1.5, "gm_median": 26.7, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -7.7, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.0, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.24, "capex_dep": 10.46, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 43.9, "debt_mv": 3.8, "payout": 53.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 1.6, "np_cagr3": -4.6, "rev_yoy": 11.7, "np_yoy": 7.7, "np_vol": 18.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["变压器", 27.0], ["高低压成套设备", 13.0], ["箱式变电站", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -10.5, "ret_prev2_year": 130.1, "ret_ytd": 54.3, "ret_pivot": 213.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 49, "hard": 24, "bondness": 52}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 135.6 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.2%(经营现金流/市值 -1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 10.46 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 135.6 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "亿能电力:PE 比行业中位高 92.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点。"]}}