{"F": {"ts_code": "920045.BJ", "name": "蘅东光", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20251231", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 462.3, "pe_ttm": 94.4319, "pb": 33.0284, "dv_ttm": 0.0834, "total_mv": 4405726.7204, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.7, 28.5, 25.7, 26.7, 26.5], "rev_series": [null, 4.8, 6.1, 13.2, 22.2], "np_series": [null, 0.6, 0.6, 1.5, 3.0], "roe_series": [7.9, 23.9, 19.5, 34.1, 38.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.0, "np_ttm": 4.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.0, "gm_median": 26.7, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 11.3, "roe_median": 23.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.7, "fix_assets": 5.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 33.03, "capex_dep": 5.02, "interest_debt": 4.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 56.3, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 10.2, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 67.0, "np_cagr3": 76.6, "rev_yoy": 76.8, "np_yoy": 113.3, "np_vol": 121.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 69.1, "fwd_pe2": 45.2, "fwd_g1": 37.0, "fwd_g2": 53.0, "peg": 1.3, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["无源光器件", 84.0], ["配套产品", 8.0], ["配套业务及其他", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 109.7, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 54, "hard": 30, "bondness": 6}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 94.4 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(6 篇研报)前瞻 PE 69.1 倍,次年 45.2 倍,PEG 1.30。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.7%,稳定度 96%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 5.02 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 94.4 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "蘅东光:PE 比行业中位高 9.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点。"]}}