{"F": {"ts_code": "920028.BJ", "name": "新恒泰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "其他塑料制品", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20260320", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.58, "pe_ttm": 21.515, "pb": 2.0634, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 239636.88, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.0, 27.9, 25.4, 26.4], "rev_series": [5.3, 6.8, 7.7, 8.4], "np_series": [0.5, 1.0, 0.9, 1.1], "roe_series": [11.7, 21.1, 14.9, 15.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.8, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 25.9, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 12.6, "roe_median": 15.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.9, "fix_assets": 4.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.06, "capex_dep": 2.06, "interest_debt": 2.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 23.2, "debt_mv": 8.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 16.4, "np_cagr3": 35.2, "rev_yoy": 12.0, "np_yoy": 0.3, "np_vol": 57.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["PEFoam", 14.0], ["PE Foam", 14.0], ["MPP", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 53, "hard": 51, "bondness": 7}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.5 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%、固定资产占比 32%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%,稳定度 93%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 2.06 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.5 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "新恒泰:PE 比行业中位低 19.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.0个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}