{"F": {"ts_code": "920027.BJ", "name": "交大铁发", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20250610", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.07, "pe_ttm": 26.6451, "pb": 2.6933, "dv_ttm": 1.7207, "total_mv": 124278.2119, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.3, 50.8, 45.8, 46.6, 44.5, 36.7], "rev_series": [null, null, 2.4, 2.7, 3.4, 3.6], "np_series": [null, null, 0.3, 0.5, 0.5, 0.4], "roe_series": [23.1, 30.5, 25.5, 25.8, 22.8, 12.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.8, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 4.5, "ocf_yield": 6.0, "gm_median": 45.8, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 15.5, "roe_median": 25.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.4, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.69, "capex_dep": 2.18, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 46.6, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": 42.2, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 15.6, "np_cagr3": 9.4, "rev_yoy": 13.2, "np_yoy": 19.1, "np_vol": 23.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["安全监测检测类产品", 30.0], ["安全监测产品", 30.0], ["测绘服务", 14.0], ["新型材料", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -25.9, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 60, "hard": 10, "bondness": 31}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 45.8%,自由现金流/市值 4.5%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 45.8%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.5%(经营现金流/市值 6.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 2.18 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.6 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "交大铁发:PE 比行业中位高 0.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点。"]}}