{"F": {"ts_code": "920026.BJ", "name": "卓兆点胶", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20231019", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.26, "pe_ttm": 55.0728, "pb": 3.6776, "dv_ttm": 1.8333, "total_mv": 232803.8997, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [75.9, 52.2, 59.1, 62.9, 53.2, 57.7], "rev_series": [1.9, 3.0, 3.4, 2.6, 1.3, 3.8], "np_series": [0.9, 0.7, 0.9, 0.6, -0.2, 0.5], "roe_series": [125.5, 50.4, 37.6, 14.3, -3.5, 8.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.2, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 57.7, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -16.8, "npm_median": 22.1, "roe_median": 14.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.8, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 6.2, "pb_calc": 3.68, "capex_dep": 2.03, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 23.4, "debt_mv": 3.4, "payout": 79.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 3.2, "np_cagr3": -16.4, "rev_yoy": 25.3, "np_yoy": -35.2, "np_vol": 163.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 38.4, "fwd_pe2": 30.9, "fwd_g1": 44.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 1.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["点胶阀类", 34.0], ["点胶阀及配件", 34.0], ["点胶耗材", 19.0], ["点胶设备", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 71.8, "ret_prev2_year": -50.3, "ret_ytd": -19.4, "ret_pivot": 100.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 65, "hard": 32, "bondness": 58}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 55.1 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 57.7%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 57.7%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 57.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 2.03 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 55.1 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "卓兆点胶:PE 比行业中位高 12.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 31.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点。"]}}