{"F": {"ts_code": "920021.BJ", "name": "流金科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "电视广播Ⅱ", "sw3": "电视广播Ⅲ", "ind": "电视广播Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20200727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.19, "pe_ttm": 183.6973, "pb": 4.4016, "dv_ttm": 0.1632, "total_mv": 283970.9844, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.6, 19.3, 16.9, 18.1, 21.3, 23.3], "rev_series": [8.0, 8.5, 8.0, 7.6, 6.5, 4.0], "np_series": [0.6, 0.8, 0.2, 0.2, -0.2, 0.1], "roe_series": [12.4, 12.0, 3.2, 3.1, -3.7, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.8, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 19.3, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 0.3, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.1, "fix_assets": 0.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.4, "capex_dep": 2.3, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 29.0, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 39.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -21.0, "np_cagr3": -21.7, "rev_yoy": -13.6, "np_yoy": 464.6, "np_vol": 118.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电视频道覆盖服务", 31.0], ["电视频道综合运营服务：电视频道覆盖服务业务", 31.0], ["微波组件", 12.0], ["微波器件", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.4, "ret_prev2_year": -5.9, "ret_ytd": 36.9, "ret_pivot": 227.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 48, "hard": 10, "bondness": 38}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 183.7 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 2.30 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 183.7 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电视广播Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 38.2 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 24.7% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 62%。", "流金科技:PE 比行业中位高 145.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 20.4个百分点。"]}}